Methodology
How PolicyLens turns pledges into evidence-led analysis
The shared workflow is deliberately simple: define the policy, identify the economic channels, find the evidence, make the assumptions explicit, then show estimates with uncertainty.
Workflow
- Define the policy and counterfactual.
- Identify fiscal and economic channels.
- Anchor assumptions in official data, government reports and academic evidence.
- Show central estimates and uncertainty ranges.
- Publish source links and policy-specific calculation notes.
Policy-specific methodology notes
- £15 minimum wage: calculation note
Models adult NLW reaching £15 from April 2027, excluding youth and apprentice alignment. The range reflects procurement, tax-benefit, behavioural and compliance uncertainty.
- Index public-sector pay to inflation: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Add public-pay restoration premiums: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Raise low-paid public-sector wages: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Cap organisation pay ratios at 10:1: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Protect pay in transition schemes: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Create a single worker status: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Equal terms for outsourced workers: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Raise statutory holiday to 35 days: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Expand paid parental leave: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Create a right to switch off: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Require human review of workplace AI: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Replace zero-hours with guaranteed hours: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Create a social-care pay agreement: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Allow union access and e-ballots: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Give day-one unfair-dismissal rights: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Ban fire and rehire: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Repeal post-1979 strike restrictions: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Strengthen Equality Act enforcement: calculation note
Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.
- Raise income-tax thresholds: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Raise income-tax thresholds scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut household energy taxes: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut household energy taxes scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut fuel duty by 20p: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut fuel duty by 20p scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut stamp duty below GBP 750,000: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut stamp duty below GBP 750,000 scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Raise inheritance-tax threshold to GBP 2m: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Raise inheritance-tax threshold to GBP 2m scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut corporation tax to 15%: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut corporation tax to 15% scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Raise VAT threshold to GBP 150,000: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Raise VAT threshold to GBP 150,000 scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Abolish IR35 rules: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Abolish IR35 rules scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Replace some high-street business rates: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Replace some high-street business rates scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut hospitality taxes: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut hospitality taxes scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Add foreign-worker employer NI surcharge: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Add foreign-worker employer NI surcharge scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Abolish ILR and migrant benefits: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Abolish ILR and migrant benefits scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Expand detention and deportation capacity: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Expand detention and deportation capacity scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cap foreign aid at GBP 1bn: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cap foreign aid at GBP 1bn scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut 68,500 civil-service jobs: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut 68,500 civil-service jobs scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Stop some reserve-interest payments: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Stop some reserve-interest payments scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Scrap net-zero subsidies: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Scrap net-zero subsidies scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Remove basic tax for NHS staff: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Remove basic tax for NHS staff scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Offer private healthcare tax relief: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Offer private healthcare tax relief scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut crypto CGT to 10%: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Cut crypto CGT to 10% scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Raise defence spending to 3% of GDP: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Raise defence spending to 3% of GDP scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Raise farming budget to GBP 3bn: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Raise farming budget to GBP 3bn scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Create a Britannia Card: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Create a Britannia Card scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Tighten benefit job-offer rules: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Tighten benefit job-offer rules scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Expand transferable marriage allowance: calculation note
Assumptions behind the Expand transferable marriage allowance scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.
- Cut welfare spending by GBP 23bn: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Cut welfare spending by GBP 23bn estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Cut 132,000 Civil Service posts: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Cut 132,000 Civil Service posts estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Create a 150,000-removals force: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Create a 150,000-removals force estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Restrict social housing to UK nationals: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Restrict social housing to UK nationals estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Cut overseas aid by GBP 7bn: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Cut overseas aid by GBP 7bn estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Cut net-zero subsidies by GBP 1.6bn: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Cut net-zero subsidies by GBP 1.6bn estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Abolish stamp duty on main homes: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Abolish stamp duty on main homes estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Abolish rates for high-street firms: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Abolish rates for high-street firms estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Create a GBP 5,000 First Job Bonus: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Create a GBP 5,000 First Job Bonus estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Reverse farm inheritance-tax changes: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Reverse farm inheritance-tax changes estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Reverse business inheritance-tax changes: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Reverse business inheritance-tax changes estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Remove VAT from private-school fees: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Remove VAT from private-school fees estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Repeal the Energy Profits Levy: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Repeal the Energy Profits Levy estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Abolish carbon taxes and CBAM: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Abolish carbon taxes and CBAM estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Zero-rate household energy VAT: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Zero-rate household energy VAT estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Cancel the 5p fuel-duty rise: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Cancel the 5p fuel-duty rise estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Restart new oil and gas licences: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Restart new oil and gas licences estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Repeal the ZEV mandate: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Repeal the ZEV mandate estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Repeal the Employment Rights Act: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Repeal the Employment Rights Act estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Reform IR35 contractor rules: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Reform IR35 contractor rules estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Scrap mandatory ESG reporting: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Scrap mandatory ESG reporting estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Cap Plan 2 student-loan interest: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Cap Plan 2 student-loan interest estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Fund 100,000 young apprenticeships: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Fund 100,000 young apprenticeships estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Fund 10,000 extra police: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Fund 10,000 extra police estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Ban strike action by doctors: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Ban strike action by doctors estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Raise defence spending to 3 percent: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Raise defence spending to 3 percent estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Reinstate the two-child benefit cap: calculation note
Scenario assumptions behind the Reinstate the two-child benefit cap estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.
- Introduce annual wealth tax: note
Models introduce annual wealth tax in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Align CGT with income tax: note
Models align cgt with income tax in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Apply NI to investment income: note
Models apply ni to investment income in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Introduce GBP 120 carbon tax: note
Models introduce gbp 120 carbon tax in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Spend GBP 40bn on green investment: note
Models spend gbp 40bn on green investment in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Nationalise water and large energy firms: note
Models nationalise water and large energy firms in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Insulate homes with GBP 29bn: note
Models insulate homes with gbp 29bn in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Fund low-carbon heating systems: note
Models fund low-carbon heating systems in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Build 150,000 social homes: note
Models build 150,000 social homes in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Introduce rent controls: note
Models introduce rent controls in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Fund free personal care: note
Models fund free personal care in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Add GBP 20bn NHS capital: note
Models add gbp 20bn nhs capital in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Spend GBP 3bn on dentistry: note
Models spend gbp 3bn on dentistry in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Increase public health grants: note
Models increase public health grants in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Provide universal school meals: note
Models provide universal school meals in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Add GBP 8bn school funding: note
Models add gbp 8bn school funding in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Increase SEND funding by GBP 5bn: note
Models increase send funding by gbp 5bn in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Abolish tuition fees: note
Models abolish tuition fees in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Spend GBP 2.5bn on active travel: note
Models spend gbp 2.5bn on active travel in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Fund EV scrappage grants: note
Models fund ev scrappage grants in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Increase nature and DEFRA funding: note
Models increase nature and defra funding in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Add GBP 5bn local funding: note
Models add gbp 5bn local funding in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Invest GBP 30bn in rail: note
Models invest gbp 30bn in rail in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Create regional mutual banks: note
Models create regional mutual banks in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Introduce free personal care: note
Models introduce free personal care in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Raise Carer’s Allowance by GBP 20: note
Models raise carer’s allowance by gbp 20 in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Create a Carer’s Minimum Wage: note
Models create a carer’s minimum wage in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Scrap two-child and benefit caps: note
Models scrap two-child and benefit caps in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Recruit 8,000 more GPs: note
Models recruit 8,000 more gps in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Guarantee urgent NHS dentist access: note
Models guarantee urgent nhs dentist access in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Put counsellors in schools: note
Models put counsellors in schools in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Extend free school meals: note
Models extend free school meals in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Introduce a Tutoring Guarantee: note
Models introduce a tutoring guarantee in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Expand early-years childcare: note
Models expand early-years childcare in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Reinstate maintenance grants: note
Models reinstate maintenance grants in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Replace business rates with landowner levy: note
Models replace business rates with landowner levy in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Reform capital gains tax: note
Models reform capital gains tax in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Restore higher bank taxes: note
Models restore higher bank taxes in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Raise digital services tax: note
Models raise digital services tax in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Tax share buybacks at 4 percent: note
Models tax share buybacks at 4 percent in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Reform aviation taxes: note
Models reform aviation taxes in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Allow asylum seekers to work: note
Models allow asylum seekers to work in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Halve consultancy spending: note
Models halve consultancy spending in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Build 150,000 social homes yearly: note
Models build 150,000 social homes yearly in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Fund emergency home energy upgrades: note
Models fund emergency home energy upgrades in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Create Young Person’s Buscard: note
Models create young person’s buscard in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Restore aid to 0.7 percent: note
Models restore aid to 0.7 percent in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Create Worker Protection Enforcement Authority: note
Models create worker protection enforcement authority in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Require zero-hours pay premium: note
Models require zero-hours pay premium in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Raise employer National Insurance: note
Models raise employer national insurance in 2027-28. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Apply VAT to private school fees: note
Models apply vat to private school fees in 2029-30. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Replace non-dom tax status: note
Models replace non-dom tax status in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Raise capital gains tax rates: note
Models raise capital gains tax rates in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Extend the Energy Profits Levy: note
Models extend the energy profits levy in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Capitalise the National Wealth Fund: note
Models capitalise the national wealth fund in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Capitalise Great British Energy: note
Models capitalise great british energy in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Expand the Warm Homes Plan: note
Models expand the warm homes plan in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Move renewables charges to tax: note
Models move renewables charges to tax in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Reform planning for 1.5m homes: note
Models reform planning for 1.5m homes in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Expand affordable homes funding: note
Models expand affordable homes funding in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Bring rail operators public: note
Models bring rail operators public in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Implement the Employment Rights Act: note
Models implement the employment rights act in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Expand primary breakfast clubs: note
Models expand primary breakfast clubs in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Create school-based nurseries: note
Models create school-based nurseries in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Recruit 6,500 teachers: note
Models recruit 6,500 teachers in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Fund extra NHS appointments: note
Models fund extra nhs appointments in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Raise defence spending to 2.6 percent: note
Models raise defence spending to 2.6 percent in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Remove the two-child limit: note
Models remove the two-child limit in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Extend personal tax threshold freezes: note
Models extend personal tax threshold freezes in 2030-31. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Cap salary-sacrifice NIC relief: note
Models cap salary-sacrifice nic relief in 2029-30. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.
- Introduce EV mileage charge: note
Models introduce ev mileage charge in 2029-30. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.