Create a 150,000-removals force: calculation note

Central fiscal result

-£1.0bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: -£3.5bn. High case: +£2.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

• Model removals capacity rising to 150,000 per year by 2028-29.
• Central case assumes 70,000 additional achieved removals by target year.
• Baseline uses current Home Office asylum and removals administration.
• Excludes uncosted treaty or third-country processing deals.

Affected population

• Affected population is people subject to removal action, not all migrants.
• Direct exposure includes asylum seekers, illegal entrants and foreign national offenders.
• Indirect exposure includes Home Office staff, courts, employers and local services.
• Achieved-removal counts are more important than nominal capacity.

Gross impact

• Central support saving: 70,000 cases x £25,000 = £1.75bn.
• Operational cost: detention, casework and travel about £0.75bn.
• Lost receipts and legal costs reduce net saving to about £1bn.
• High-cost case assumes capacity built but removals under-deliver.

Fiscal build-up, central case

• Asylum support and accommodation savings: -£1.8bn
• Enforcement, detention and flights: +£0.6bn
• Legal, casework and appeals: +£0.2bn
• Lost tax and economic activity: £0.0bn

Central net impact: -£1.0bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

• Low case assumes high achieved-removal rates and falling accommodation use.
• Central case assumes capacity grows but removals lag the stated target.
• High-cost case assumes legal delays and expensive detention dominate savings.
• Employers may substitute domestic or other migrant labour, but not immediately.
• No deterrence saving is scored without evidence on future arrivals.

Phasing

• 2026-27: -£0.2bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
• 2027-28: -£0.6bn. Main ramp-up year.
• 2028-29: -£1.0bn. Target-year central estimate.
• 2029-30: -£1.0bn. Continuation at steady-state assumptions.

Main source groups

• Conservative Party, "Controlling immigration: speech and BORDERS plan" (2025): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.
• Home Office, "Irregular migration to the UK statistics" (2026): Official irregular-migration statistics provide the baseline for arrivals and enforcement pressure; needed for deportation-capacity modelling.
• Home Office, "Immigration system statistics quarterly release" (2026): Quarterly immigration statistics cover asylum, removals and supported populations; used to size administrative and accommodation effects.
• Office for Budget Responsibility, "Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026" (2026): The OBR forecast sets the macro, borrowing and receipts baseline used for broad fiscal context; prevents treating tax cuts or spending changes as self-financing.
• Dustmann and Frattini, "The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK" (Economic Journal, 2014): UK immigrants' fiscal effects differed by cohort and origin, with recent EEA migrants making positive contributions; warns against assuming all migration restrictions generate fiscal savings.
• Manacorda, Manning and Wadsworth, "The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Wages" (Review of Economic Studies, 2012): UK immigration affected relative wages mainly among migrant groups, with limited evidence of large native wage losses; relevant to migration and labour-market claims.
• Conservative Party, "Our Plan for Britain" (2026): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.