Expand affordable homes funding: note

Central fiscal result

+£4.0bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: +£2.5bn. High case: +£8.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

• Models expand affordable homes funding by 2028-29.
• Baseline is current policy or published departmental plans.
• Central case uses published party or official anchors where available.
• Wider manifesto interactions are excluded unless stated.

Affected population

• Affected units are people, firms, households or providers depending on policy.
• Direct exposure follows the manifesto or government target group.
• Indirect exposure includes suppliers, workers, consumers and taxpayers.
• Weakest counts are widened in the low and high cases.

Gross impact

• Published anchor or scenario central is +£4.0bn in 2028-29.
• Gross costs or receipts are adjusted for behaviour and delivery risk.
• Tax, benefit or procurement offsets are separated in the fiscal build-up.
• The range is deliberately wider where implementation detail is thin.

Fiscal build-up, central case

• Gross programme or delivery cost: +£4.6bn
• Tax and receipt offsets: -£0.3bn
• Administration and evaluation: +£0.1bn
• Behavioural and pass-through effects: -£0.4bn

Central net impact: +£4.0bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

• Low case assumes stronger delivery or receipts than central.
• Central case applies moderate behavioural leakage and pass-through.
• High case allows weaker delivery, larger take-up or higher costs.
• Output effects follow incidence, capacity and investment channels.
• Distributional gains do not automatically imply GDP gains.

Phasing

• 2026-27: +£0.4bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
• 2027-28: +£2.2bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
• 2028-29: +£4.0bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
• 2029-30: +£4.0bn. Phased implementation and take-up.

Main source groups

• Glaeser and Gyourko, "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply" (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018): Constrained housing supply raises prices and can damage mobility and productivity; explains why supply reform can raise GDP.
• Hilber and Vermeulen, "The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices" (Economic Journal, 2016): Tight planning constraints raise house prices and limit the effect of demand-side policy; supports planning and housing-supply analysis.
• Office for National Statistics, "Housing supply indicators, UK" (2025): ONS housing indicators show supply constraints and market pressures; used for housing baseline context.
• HM Government, "Plan for Change" (2024): The plan sets measurable targets on homes, health, police, school readiness and clean power; used for current government delivery targets.
• HM Treasury, "Spending Review 2025" (2025): The review sets departmental spending plans across health, defence, housing, schools and transport; provides implementation and budget context.
• Labour Party, "Change: Labour Party Manifesto 2024" (2024): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.