PolicyLens

Methodology note

Allow union access and e-ballots: calculation note

Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.

View main policy page: Allow union access and e-ballots

Central fiscal result

+GBP 0.3bn - Net public-finance impact in 2027-28

Low case: +GBP 0.0bn. High case: +GBP 2.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Give unions workplace access rights and allow secure electronic ballots for statutory votes.
  • Baseline is current law and published official data unless stated.
  • Private business costs are excluded unless they affect tax or procurement.
  • Target year is 2027-28, with later years shown separately.

Affected population

  • Unit is employers, unions and workers.
  • DBT estimates union density at 22.0%.
  • Public-sector density is 49.9%; private-sector 11.7%.
  • Bargaining coverage, not membership alone, drives wage effects.

Gross impact

  • Official union-access cost is about GBP 0.002bn EANDCB.
  • Central fiscal case adds public-employer HR and dispute risk.
  • Private wage effects are not direct fiscal costs.
  • Public pay spillover is capped at GBP 0.25bn central.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Public-employer HR compliance: +GBP 0.05bn
  • Electronic ballot systems: +GBP 0.03bn
  • Public-sector dispute and pay pressure: +GBP 0.25bn
  • Lower paper-ballot administration: -GBP 0.03bn

Central net impact: +GBP 0.3bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes administrative change only.
  • Central assumes modest public-sector wage/dispute spillover.
  • High case assumes faster unionisation and disputes.
  • Private-sector wage effects are off-budget.
  • No productivity gain is assumed.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.1bn. Access rules start.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 0.3bn. Bargaining response.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 0.5bn. Coverage may rise.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 0.7bn. Settlement effects grow.

Main source groups

  • S1: S1 DBT: union density was 22.0% in 2024.
  • S2: S2 DBT: public density 49.9%, private 11.7%.
  • S3: S3 OECD/AIAS: UK bargaining coverage about 40.2%.
  • S4: S4 ERA Table A10: union-access cost about GBP 2.2m.
  • S5: S5 Farber/Frandsen: unions can raise wages and compress inequality.