Cut overseas aid by GBP 7bn

Aid baseline

The current baseline already includes a planned reduction in UK aid to 0.3% of GNI by 2027-28. A further GBP 7bn saving would push aid well below that path unless offset by refugee-cost changes.

• Party page claims GBP 7bn of savings.
• Current baseline already cuts aid spending.
• International programme cuts bear the direct cost.

Core trade-offs

Borrowing falls if aid is cut. The direct losses fall on overseas recipients, multilateral programmes and UK delivery partners; the UK macro effect is small but diplomatic and humanitarian costs can be large.

• UK taxpayers gain from lower spending.
• Aid recipients and suppliers lose funding.
• Strategic influence may weaken.

Fiscal impact by 2028-29

-GBP 7.0bn to -GBP 2.0bn. Central estimate: -GBP 5.0bn.

• Positive numbers mean net fiscal cost; negative numbers mean Exchequer savings.
• Main effect is direct programme spending cuts.
• Contract exits and commitments reduce net savings.
• Current baseline already includes aid reductions.
• This is not an official costing.

Economic impact by 2028-29

• Jobs: UK aid-sector employment falls; domestic labour-market effect is small overall.
• Wages: Limited broad wage effect; aid-delivery organisations face job and pay pressure.
• Prices: No material UK CPI effect expected.
• GDP / productivity: UK GDP effect small; global welfare and resilience likely fall.

Assessment

Aid cuts are fiscally simpler than many pledges: lower spending directly reduces borrowing. But the current baseline already includes major aid reductions, so claiming a further GBP 7bn requires going below the 0.3% GNI path or cutting in-donor refugee costs.

Confidence: Medium. The spending baseline is reasonably clear; delivery, legal commitments and refugee-cost accounting remain uncertain.

Main risks

• Double counting: Savings may overlap with the existing 0.3% GNI reduction path.
• Humanitarian loss: Cuts reduce support for health, conflict, climate and poverty programmes abroad.
• Strategic cost: Lower aid can weaken UK influence and crisis resilience.

Safeguards

• Separate new cuts from existing aid reductions.
• Protect humanitarian and epidemic-response budgets.
• Publish programme-level reductions before booking savings.

Academic evidence

UK government evidence

Sources

• PolicyLens methodology: Cut overseas aid by GBP 7bn Internal - PolicyLens, 2026
• Provisional UK Official Development Assistance spend 2025 UK government statistics - Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, 2026
• UK aid: Reducing spending to 0.3% of GNI by 2027/28 Parliamentary briefing - House of Commons Library, 2026
• Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026 Fiscal forecast - Office for Budget Responsibility, 2026
• Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy? Academic article - Ramey, Journal of Economic Literature, 2011
• Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes Academic article - Barro and Redlick, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011
• Our Plan for Britain Party policy source - Conservative Party, 2026

Other Conservative policies

• Cut welfare spending by GBP 23bn
• Cut 132,000 Civil Service posts
• Create a 150,000-removals force
• Restrict social housing to UK nationals
• Cut net-zero subsidies by GBP 1.6bn
• Abolish stamp duty on main homes
• Abolish rates for high-street firms
• Create a GBP 5,000 First Job Bonus