PolicyLens

Green - Social care

Fund free personal care

Spend GBP 20bn a year on social care and free personal care.

Last updated: May 2026.

Read the policy-specific methodology note

Policy baseline

The Green manifesto proposes GBP 20bn annual investment in social care and free personal care. Demand and workforce expansion are major uncertainties.

  • Targets adults needing care and carers.
  • Workforce pay and supply are binding constraints.
  • NHS offsets are uncertain.

Core trade-offs

The direct beneficiaries are care users, families and care workers. The costs fall mainly on taxpayers and scarce care labour. The main economic question is unmet demand can push cost above pledge.

  • Care users, families and care workers gain most directly.
  • Costs fall mainly on taxpayers and scarce care labour.
  • Key risk: unmet demand can push cost above pledge.

Fiscal impact by 2028-29

+GBP 15.0bn to +GBP 38.0bn. Central estimate: +GBP 20.0bn.

  • Positive numbers mean net fiscal cost; negative numbers mean Exchequer savings.
  • Main channel is the scored tax, spending or delivery change.
  • Offsets depend on tax receipts, behaviour and pass-through.
  • Range reflects uncertain implementation and economic response.
  • This is not an official costing.

Economic impact by 2028-29

  • Jobs: NHS and care demand for staff rises; shortages may bid workers away from other sectors.
  • Wages: Direct gains for health and care staff if pay or hours rise.
  • Prices: Public provision limits prices; agency costs can rise under shortages.
  • GDP / productivity: Potentially positive if health improves labour supply; delivery bottlenecks may limit gains.

Assessment

This is a real trade-off, not a free gain. Care users, families and care workers benefit, while taxpayers and scarce care labour bear most costs. Overall output depends on behaviour, capacity and pass-through.

Confidence: Medium-low. Higher on the policy target and fiscal channel; lower on behaviour, pass-through and economy-wide effects.

Main risks

  • Workforce shortage: More money may bid up scarce labour rather than expand capacity.
  • Productivity risk: Extra appointments or care hours need workflow changes to improve outcomes.
  • Cost drift: Health and care commitments tend to grow with demographics and wages.

Safeguards

  • Tie funding to workforce plans.
  • Track outputs and outcomes, not just spending.
  • Limit agency-cost leakage.

Academic evidence

Crawford, Stoye and Zaranko, Journal of Health Economics, 2021

Care and hospital use

Long-term care spending can interact with hospital use among older people.

Relevant to care spending and NHS offsets.

Long-term Care Spending and Hospital Use (2021)

UK government evidence

Green Party of England and Wales, 2024

Green manifesto

The manifesto defines the tax, spending, climate, housing and public-service proposals modelled here.

Used to define the scenario, not as an official costing.

Manifesto for a Fairer, Greener Country (2024)

HM Treasury, 2025

Spending Review baseline

Adult social-care funding baselines shape whether the proposal is additional spending.

Used to set the counterfactual.

Spending Review 2025 (2025)

Sources

Other Green policies

PolicyLens estimates are illustrative and should not be treated as official costings.