Fund 10,000 extra police: calculation note

Central fiscal result

+£0.8bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: +£0.7bn. High case: +£1.4bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

• Model £800m annual police funding by 2028-29.
• Recruitment target is 10,000 officers.
• Baseline policing budgets are unchanged otherwise.
• Crime benefits are not scored as Exchequer savings.

Affected population

• Affected population is police forces and residents in hotspot areas.
• Direct count is 10,000 extra officers in the pledge.
• Indirect exposure includes courts, prisons and local businesses.
• Benefits depend on geographic deployment.

Gross impact

• Central spending: £0.8bn from the party paper.
• Training and setup are included within the high case.
• Low case assumes slower recruitment in-year.
• No automatic crime-cost saving is deducted.

Fiscal build-up, central case

• Police recruitment and payroll: +£0.8bn
• Training and equipment: +£0.1bn
• Crime-related fiscal offsets: -£0.1bn
• Administration: £0.0bn

Central net impact: +£0.8bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

• Low case assumes slower ramp-up and some crime offsets.
• Central case follows the £800m envelope.
• High case assumes overtime, training and equipment overspend.
• Hotspot targeting improves expected effectiveness.
• Trust effects must be monitored, not assumed.

Phasing

• 2026-27: +£0.2bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
• 2027-28: +£0.6bn. Main ramp-up year.
• 2028-29: +£0.8bn. Target-year central estimate.
• 2029-30: +£0.8bn. Continuation at steady-state assumptions.

Main source groups

• Conservative Party, "Take Back Our Streets" (2026): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.
• Home Office, "Police funding for England and Wales 2015 to 2026" (2025): Policing funding for England and Wales was up to £19.9bn in 2025-26; anchors the scale of an extra £800m policing package.
• Home Office, "Police workforce, England and Wales: 31 March 2025" (2025): The Home Office records police officer numbers and workforce trends across England and Wales; relevant to recruitment capacity and baseline workforce questions.
• Office for Budget Responsibility, "Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026" (2026): The OBR forecast sets the macro, borrowing and receipts baseline used for broad fiscal context; prevents treating tax cuts or spending changes as self-financing.
• Braga, Papachristos and Hureau, "The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime" (Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2014): Hotspots policing reduced crime in many studies without simply displacing crime nearby; relevant to the crime-reduction claim for extra police patrols.
• Sherman and Weisburd, "General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots" (Justice Quarterly, 1995): Concentrating police patrols in crime hot spots reduced disorder and crime calls; supports targeted patrols more than general headcount rises.
• Draca, Machin and Witt, "Panic on the Streets of London" (American Economic Review, 2011): A large police deployment in London reduced crime in targeted areas, showing deterrence effects; relevant to extra police and hotspot claims.
• Conservative Party, "Our Plan for Britain" (2026): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.