PolicyLens

Green - Housing

Introduce rent controls

Restrict private-rent increases and strengthen tenant protections.

Last updated: May 2026.

Read the policy-specific methodology note

Policy baseline

The Green manifesto supports rent controls. Direct fiscal cost is low, but economic risk is mostly private rental supply and maintenance.

  • Targets private renters in covered tenancies.
  • Landlords and future renters bear risk.
  • Design determines supply effects.

Core trade-offs

The direct beneficiaries are incumbent renters facing high rents. The costs fall mainly on landlords and potentially future renters. The main economic question is rental supply and maintenance may fall.

  • Incumbent renters facing high rents gain most directly.
  • Costs fall mainly on landlords and potentially future renters.
  • Key risk: rental supply and maintenance may fall.

Fiscal impact by 2028-29

+GBP 0.0bn to +GBP 2.0bn. Central estimate: +GBP 0.2bn.

  • Positive numbers mean net fiscal cost; negative numbers mean Exchequer savings.
  • Main channel is the scored tax, spending or delivery change.
  • Offsets depend on tax receipts, behaviour and pass-through.
  • Range reflects uncertain implementation and economic response.
  • This is not an official costing.

Economic impact by 2028-29

  • Jobs: Little direct employment effect; construction and letting activity may fall.
  • Wages: Incumbent tenants gain disposable income; landlords lose rental income.
  • Prices: Controlled rents fall for covered homes; uncontrolled rents may rise.
  • GDP / productivity: Likely negative for rental supply and maintenance unless narrowly targeted.

Assessment

This is a real trade-off, not a free gain. Incumbent renters facing high rents benefit, while landlords and potentially future renters bear most costs. Overall output depends on behaviour, capacity and pass-through.

Confidence: Medium-low. Higher on the policy target and fiscal channel; lower on behaviour, pass-through and economy-wide effects.

Main risks

  • Supply contraction: Landlords may sell or underinvest if expected returns fall.
  • Targeting risk: Incumbent tenants gain more than households trying to enter the market.
  • Maintenance risk: Lower returns can reduce repairs and quality.

Safeguards

  • Limit coverage and review supply effects.
  • Protect new construction incentives.
  • Track evictions, listings and repairs.

Academic evidence

Diamond, McQuade and Qian, American Economic Review, 2019

Rent control effects

Expanded rent control protected incumbent tenants but reduced rental supply and raised prices elsewhere.

Directly relevant to rent-control risk.

The Effects of Rent Control Expansion (2019)

Glaeser and Gyourko, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018

Housing supply economics

Constrained housing supply raises prices and can damage mobility and productivity.

Explains why supply reform can raise GDP.

The Economic Implications of Housing Supply (2018)

UK government evidence

Green Party of England and Wales, 2024

Green manifesto

The manifesto defines the tax, spending, climate, housing and public-service proposals modelled here.

Used to define the scenario, not as an official costing.

Manifesto for a Fairer, Greener Country (2024)

Office for National Statistics, 2025

Housing supply indicators

ONS housing indicators show supply constraints and affordability pressures across UK housing markets.

Anchors the affected-market scale and supply-side caveat.

Housing supply indicators, UK (2025)

Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024

IFS Green reaction

IFS warned Green spending plans involve very large additional public investment.

Supports wide fiscal bounds for housing capital policy.

Green Party manifesto: a reaction (2024)

Sources

Other Green policies

PolicyLens estimates are illustrative and should not be treated as official costings.