Restrict social housing to UK nationals: calculation note

Central fiscal result

-£0.8bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: -£2.5bn. High case: +£0.5bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

• Model new social lettings restricted to UK nationals by 2028-29.
• Central case assumes limited additional savings from reallocations.
• Baseline is 263,000 new social lettings in England in 2024-25.
• Excludes any new social-home construction policy.

Affected population

• Affected population is new applicant households, not existing tenants.
• Most new lead tenants are already UK nationals.
• Indirect exposure includes councils, temporary accommodation providers and private renters.
• Vulnerable exemptions are unspecified and materially affect cost.

Gross impact

• Central saving: lower migrant temporary-accommodation support about £1.1bn.
• Offset: homelessness, legal and emergency support about £0.3bn.
• High-cost case assumes councils absorb higher homelessness duties.
• No housing-supply gain is assumed.

Fiscal build-up, central case

• Lower social-housing and TA support: -£1.1bn
• Homelessness and emergency housing: +£0.2bn
• Administration and legal costs: +£0.1bn
• Local service spillovers: £0.0bn

Central net impact: -£0.8bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

• Low case assumes large reduction in temporary-accommodation exposure.
• Central case assumes most excluded households were already restricted by eligibility rules.
• High-cost case assumes homelessness duties offset or exceed savings.
• Private-rent pressure is local and not scored as Exchequer cost.
• Queue effects benefit some households but do not increase housing supply.

Phasing

• 2026-27: -£0.2bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
• 2027-28: -£0.6bn. Main ramp-up year.
• 2028-29: -£0.8bn. Target-year central estimate.
• 2029-30: -£0.8bn. Continuation at steady-state assumptions.

Main source groups

• Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, "Social housing lettings in England: tenants, 2024 to 2025" (2025): England had 1.34m households on registers and 263,000 households receiving new lettings in 2024-25; sets the scale of allocation changes.
• Home Office, "Public funds: migrant access to public funds" (2025): Migrants subject to NRPF normally cannot claim most benefits or housing assistance; limits assumed fiscal savings from nationality restrictions.
• Office for Budget Responsibility, "Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026" (2026): The OBR forecast sets the macro, borrowing and receipts baseline used for broad fiscal context; prevents treating tax cuts or spending changes as self-financing.
• Chetty, Hendren and Katz, "The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children" (American Economic Review, 2016): Moving children to lower-poverty neighbourhoods improved later-life outcomes in the US experiment; shows housing allocation affects more than rent costs, especially for children.
• Fack and Grenet, "When Do Better Schools Raise Housing Prices?" (Journal of Public Economics, 2010): School quality affected housing prices where school assignment mattered; relevant when housing policy affects local public-service access.
• Conservative Party, "Our Plan for Britain" (2026): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.