PolicyLens

Green - Labour market

Repeal post-1979 strike restrictions

Remove post-1979 strike restrictions, including limits on ballots, picketing and solidarity action.

Last updated: May 2026.

Read the policy-specific methodology note

Current baseline

The policy goes beyond ERA changes by modelling broad repeal of post-1979 restrictions, including wider lawful industrial action.

  • Union density is 22.0%.
  • Public density is much higher.
  • Fiscal cost is strike-year dependent.

Core trade-offs

Unionised workers may gain bargaining leverage. Employers, taxpayers and service users bear wage and disruption costs. Output is likely lower in strike-heavy years.

  • Unionised workers gain leverage.
  • Public services bear disruption.
  • Output falls in strike years.

Illustrative fiscal impact

+GBP 0.0bn to +GBP 10.0bn. Central estimate: +GBP 2.0bn.

  • Positive numbers mean public-finance pressure; negative numbers mean Exchequer savings.
  • Gross costs are separated from tax, NI and benefit offsets.
  • Private business costs are not automatically fiscal costs.
  • Behavioural responses widen the range materially.
  • This is not an official costing.

Economic impact by 2027-28

  • Jobs: No direct job creation; higher wage pressure can reduce marginal hiring.
  • Wages: Likely raises settlements in organised sectors, especially public services.
  • Prices: Higher wage settlements and disruption can pass into prices or taxes.
  • GDP / productivity: Likely negative in strike-heavy years because output is directly disrupted.

Assessment

This is the least costable labour-policy pledge. Direct legal-administration costs are small, but the intended effect is stronger bargaining and wider industrial action rights. Fiscal exposure depends on future disputes and public-sector settlements.

Confidence: Very low. The legal scope is broad and future dispute behaviour is unknowable from public data.

Main risks

  • Service disruption: Strikes in health, education and transport can impose large output and service costs.
  • Pay spillovers: Stronger strike rights can raise public pay settlements.
  • Uncosted scope: Solidarity and political action make exposure much harder to bound.

Safeguards

  • Model specific legal changes separately.
  • Publish strike-day and settlement monitoring.
  • Keep emergency service continuity rules explicit.

Academic evidence

Farber, Herbst, Kuziemko and Naidu, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021

Unions and Inequality Over the Twentieth Century

Unionisation historically reduced wage inequality, partly by compressing pay within and across workplaces.

Explains who may gain from collective-bargaining reforms.

Unions and Inequality Over the Twentieth Century (2021)

Frandsen, Journal of Labor Economics, 2021

The Surprising Impacts of Unionization

Unionisation can raise earnings for covered workers while shifting costs to employers.

Relevant to bargaining reforms and incidence, but not a fiscal costing.

The Surprising Impacts of Unionization (2021)

UK government evidence

Department for Business and Trade, 2025

Trade union membership, UK, 1995 to 2024

DBT estimates union density at 22.0%, with 49.9% public and 11.7% private density.

Sets the current collective-bargaining baseline.

Trade union membership, UK, 1995 to 2024 (2025)

House of Commons Library, 2026

Trade unions and industrial relations

Commons Library summarises trade-union law and industrial-relations rules after the ERA.

Defines the legal baseline for repeal options.

Trade unions and industrial relations (2026)

Department for Business and Trade, 2026

Employment Rights Act 2025 - Economic Analysis

The ERA economic analysis estimates around GBP 1bn annual direct business cost before social-care bargaining.

Provides official baseline costs and affected groups.

Employment Rights Act 2025 - Economic Analysis (2026)

Sources

Other Green policies

PolicyLens estimates are illustrative and not official costings.