PolicyLens

Methodology note

Reform aviation taxes: note

Models reform aviation taxes in 2028-29. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.

View main policy page: Reform aviation taxes

Central fiscal result

-GBP 2.8bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: -GBP 5.0bn. High case: -GBP 0.7bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Models reform aviation taxes by 2028-29.
  • Baseline is current policy or published departmental plans.
  • Central case uses published party or official anchors where available.
  • Wider manifesto interactions are excluded unless stated.

Affected population

  • Affected units are people, firms, households or providers depending on policy.
  • Direct exposure follows the manifesto or government target group.
  • Indirect exposure includes suppliers, workers, consumers and taxpayers.
  • Weakest counts are widened in the low and high cases.

Gross impact

  • Published anchor or scenario central is +GBP 2.8bn in 2028-29.
  • Gross costs or receipts are adjusted for behaviour and delivery risk.
  • Tax, benefit or procurement offsets are separated in the fiscal build-up.
  • The range is deliberately wider where implementation detail is thin.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Gross tax or receipt yield: -GBP 3.5bn
  • Behavioural and avoidance response: +GBP 0.6bn
  • Administration and compliance cost: +GBP 0.1bn
  • Other tax-base interactions: +GBP 0.0bn

Central net impact: -GBP 2.8bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes stronger delivery or receipts than central.
  • Central case applies moderate behavioural leakage and pass-through.
  • High case allows weaker delivery, larger take-up or higher costs.
  • Output effects follow incidence, capacity and investment channels.
  • Distributional gains do not automatically imply GDP gains.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: -GBP 0.3bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
  • 2027-28: -GBP 1.5bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
  • 2028-29: -GBP 2.8bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
  • 2029-30: -GBP 2.8bn. Phased implementation and take-up.

Main source groups

  • S1: Liberal Democrats: source for scenario or evidence.
  • S2: Liberal Democrats: source for scenario or evidence.
  • S3: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy: source for scenario or evidence.
  • S4: Journal of Urban Economics: source for scenario or evidence.