Create a Britannia Card: calculation note

Central fiscal result

+£5.0bn - Net fiscal impact in 2027-28

Low case: -£2.0bn. High case: +£35.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

• Cardholders pay a one-off £250,000 fee.
• They receive a 10-year exemption on foreign income and gains.
• Fees may be redistributed to low-paid workers.
• Existing UK income remains taxable in the central case.

Affected population

• Affected units are wealthy migrants, HMRC and low-paid dividend recipients.
• Reported assumptions include thousands of cardholders.
• Low-paid workers gain only if fees exceed tax losses.
• High-end property markets may be indirectly affected.

Gross impact

• 6,000 cardholders would raise £1.5bn in fees.
• Tax foregone can exceed fees for high-wealth households.
• Central case assumes £5bn net cost.
• Low case assumes genuinely additional residents and revenue.

Fiscal build-up, central case

• Card fee receipts: -£1.5bn
• Foreign-income and gains tax foregone: +£5.0bn
• Worker dividend distribution: +£1.0bn
• Administration and anti-avoidance: +£0.5bn

Central net impact: +£5.0bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

• Low case assumes mostly additional residents who would not otherwise pay UK tax.
• Central case assumes some tax-base erosion from would-be taxpayers.
• High case follows warnings that exemptions could cost tens of billions.
• Housing and investment effects are not fiscal-scored.

Phasing

• 2026-27: +£0.5bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
• 2027-28: +£5.0bn. Main scenario year.
• 2028-29: +£8.0bn. Behaviour and pass-through develop.
• 2029-30: +£10.0bn. Steady-state uncertainty persists.

Main source groups

• Saez, Slemrod and Giertz, "The Elasticity of Taxable Income" (Journal of Economic Literature, 2012): Taxable-income responses include avoidance and income shifting, not just real migration or work; supports caution around claimed dynamic revenue gains.
• HM Revenue and Customs, "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes" (2026): HMRC ready-reckoners show large revenue effects from income-tax, NI, VAT, fuel-duty and corporation-tax changes; primary fiscal scale anchor.
• Reform UK, "Our Contract with You" (2024): The Contract specifies thresholds, duties and business-tax proposals while claiming annual cost and saving totals; defines broad current tax pledges.
• Reuters, "Britain's Reform party unveils Britannia Card" (2025): Used to support the baseline, affected-population sizing or behavioural assumptions in the illustrative scenario.
• Tax Policy Associates, "The £34bn cost of Reform UK's Britannia card proposal" (2025): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.
• Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Reform UK manifesto response" (2024): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.
• Kleven, Landais and Saez, "Taxation and International Migration of Superstars" (American Economic Review, 2013): Very high earners with international options can respond strongly to tax differentials; supports some location response, but from a narrow superstar setting.
• Reform UK, "Our Policies" (2026): Used to define the pledge wording, policy scope and implementation scenario being modelled.