Expand detention and deportation capacity

Capacity target

Reform's live page and Operation Restoring Justice set a five-year programme: 24,000 removal-centre places, treaty changes and up to five deportation flights a day.

• 24,000 removal places are planned.
• Up to five flights a day are proposed.
• Reform claims GBP 42bn over ten years.

Core trade-offs

Asylum accommodation and support costs may fall if removals are lawful and rapid. Upfront capital, detention, policing, legal and diplomatic costs are large.

• Accommodation savings are the claimed benefit.
• Home Office capacity costs rise first.
• Legal failure could erase savings.

Illustrative fiscal impact

-GBP 3.0bn to +GBP 6.0bn. Central estimate: +GBP 1.0bn.

• Positive numbers mean public-finance pressure; negative numbers mean Exchequer savings.
• 24,000 places is the main scale marker.
• Gross costs and receipt offsets are separated in methodology.
• Behaviour and pass-through widen the range.
• This is not an official costing.

Economic impact by 2027-28

• Jobs: Creates enforcement and construction demand; wider labour-market effect is limited.
• Wages: No broad wage effect; sectoral impacts depend on right-to-work restrictions.
• Prices: Limited aggregate price effect, though detention procurement costs rise.
• GDP / productivity: Likely small or negative if resources crowd out other Home Office work.

Assessment

The policy could reduce asylum accommodation costs only if removals are legally, diplomatically and operationally deliverable at scale. The first fiscal effect is likely cost pressure from detention capacity, staff, litigation and flights. Claimed long-run savings should not be treated as bankable near-term money.

Confidence: Low. Reform gives capacity targets and savings claims, but operational costs and legal feasibility remain unresolved.

Main risks

• Legal constraints: Court challenges or treaty limits could slow removals and raise detention costs.
• Capital overrun: Building and staffing 24,000 places quickly could cost more than assumed.
• Diplomatic failure: Removals require receiving-country cooperation, not only UK capacity.

Safeguards

• Publish Home Office unit-cost assumptions.
• Separate capital costs from later accommodation savings.
• Audit legality before booking savings.

Academic evidence

UK government evidence

Sources

• PolicyLens illustrative scenario methodology: Expand detention and deportation capacity Internal - PolicyLens, 2026
• The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK Academic article - Dustmann and Frattini, Economic Journal, 2014
• Migration Advisory Committee evidence base Official advisory report - Migration Advisory Committee, 2024
• The Cost of the Boriswave Party policy document - Reform UK, 2025
• Operation Restoring Justice Party policy document - Reform UK, 2025
• The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain Academic article - Manacorda, Manning and Wadsworth, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2012
• Our Policies Party policy source - Reform UK, 2026

Other Reform UK policies

• Raise income-tax thresholds
• Cut household energy taxes
• Cut fuel duty by 20p
• Cut stamp duty below GBP 750,000
• Raise inheritance-tax threshold to GBP 2m
• Cut corporation tax to 15%
• Raise VAT threshold to GBP 150,000
• Abolish IR35 rules