PolicyLens

Methodology note

Create a right to switch off: calculation note

Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.

View main policy page: Create a right to switch off

Central fiscal result

+GBP 0.3bn - Net public-finance impact in 2027-28

Low case: +GBP 0.0bn. High case: +GBP 1.5bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Protect workers from routine work contact outside contracted hours, with employer duty guidance.
  • Baseline is current law and published official data unless stated.
  • Private business costs are excluded unless they affect tax or procurement.
  • Target year is 2027-28, with later years shown separately.

Affected population

  • Unit is employees and employers.
  • No official affected-count estimate is used.
  • Public-sector exposure uses ONS workforce counts.
  • Private business cost is not fiscal unless taxed.

Gross impact

  • Central public-sector HR and training cost is GBP 0.15bn.
  • Paid cover for essential contact adds GBP 0.20bn.
  • No broad compensation payments are included.
  • Tax receipts are assumed unchanged.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Public HR and training: +GBP 0.15bn
  • Paid cover for essential contact: +GBP 0.20bn
  • Enforcement and tribunal cost: +GBP 0.05bn
  • Offsetting productivity assumption: -GBP 0.10bn

Central net impact: +GBP 0.3bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes guidance-led compliance.
  • Central assumes some paid cover in public services.
  • High case assumes broader disputes and cover.
  • Employers may reduce off-hours contact or formalise on-call pay.
  • No wellbeing saving is deducted.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.1bn. Guidance only.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 0.3bn. First compliance year.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 0.2bn. Policies settle.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 0.2bn. Steady state.

Main source groups

  • S1: S1 ERA analysis: rights reforms impose direct business costs.
  • S2: S2 ONS: public-sector workforce sets direct fiscal exposure.
  • S3: S3 Tribunal stats: enforcement capacity is already constrained.
  • S4: S4 Autor/Kerr/Kugler: higher adjustment costs can affect productivity.
  • S5: S5 OECD: working-time protections affect job quality and flexibility.