Reform planning for 1.5m homes: note

Central fiscal result

+£0.5bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: -£2.0bn. High case: +£5.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

• Models reform planning for 1.5m homes by 2028-29.
• Baseline is current policy or published departmental plans.
• Central case uses published party or official anchors where available.
• Wider manifesto interactions are excluded unless stated.

Affected population

• Affected units are people, firms, households or providers depending on policy.
• Direct exposure follows the manifesto or government target group.
• Indirect exposure includes suppliers, workers, consumers and taxpayers.
• Weakest counts are widened in the low and high cases.

Gross impact

• Published anchor or scenario central is +£0.5bn in 2028-29.
• Gross costs or receipts are adjusted for behaviour and delivery risk.
• Tax, benefit or procurement offsets are separated in the fiscal build-up.
• The range is deliberately wider where implementation detail is thin.

Fiscal build-up, central case

• Gross programme or delivery cost: +£0.6bn
• Tax and receipt offsets: +£0.0bn
• Administration and evaluation: +£0.1bn
• Behavioural and pass-through effects: -£0.2bn

Central net impact: +£0.5bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

• Low case assumes stronger delivery or receipts than central.
• Central case applies moderate behavioural leakage and pass-through.
• High case allows weaker delivery, larger take-up or higher costs.
• Output effects follow incidence, capacity and investment channels.
• Distributional gains do not automatically imply GDP gains.

Phasing

• 2026-27: +£0.1bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
• 2027-28: +£0.3bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
• 2028-29: +£0.5bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
• 2029-30: +£0.5bn. Phased implementation and take-up.

Main source groups

• Glaeser and Gyourko, "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply" (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018): Constrained housing supply raises prices and can damage mobility and productivity; explains why supply reform can raise GDP.
• Hilber and Vermeulen, "The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices" (Economic Journal, 2016): Tight planning constraints raise house prices and limit the effect of demand-side policy; supports planning and housing-supply analysis.
• HM Government, "Plan for Change" (2024): The plan sets measurable targets on homes, health, police, school readiness and clean power; used for current government delivery targets.
• Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, "Planning and Infrastructure Bill" (2025): The Bill is designed to support housebuilding and infrastructure decisions through planning reform; defines implementation beyond manifesto aspiration.
• Labour Party, "Change: Labour Party Manifesto 2024" (2024): The manifesto sets the policy pledge, funding claim or target being modelled; used as the policy definition and manifesto baseline.